MSI HORIZON tanker report showed large crude tankers strengthening on China’s special port fees (SPF) and new US sanctions, while LR2 swing tonnage and coated-fleet growth shaped a weaker products picture. Read more at Riviera
Author: MSI
Trump officials go all out to block carbon tax on shipping
In the near term, the impact on freight costs will be relatively minimal, said Stuart Nicoll, a director at MSI, a London-based consultancy. The fees on high-emitting fuels like oil will start in 2028 and rise, but by 2035, some of the rewards for using low-carbon fuels may start to outweigh the penalties. Read more at E&E News.
Middle East OSV demand to plateau in 2026 before increase in 2027
The Middle East offshore supply vessel (OSV) market is characterized by strong demand, tight supply and an aging fleet. Major players dominate regional markets, but fragmentation persists, leading to potential consolidation, writes MSI Associate Director Todd Jensen. Read more at Offshore.
Sanctions on container shipping’s ‘grey fleet’ could hit 300 vessels
What if the sanctions model applied to tankers was applied to container sector?
About 300 Red Sea-transiting container ships are potentially at risk of being sanctioned for trading to Russia and Iran, new data shows.
The vessels comprise a growing “grey fleet” of mostly feeder vessels that could be hit by any extension of US sanctions, according to analysis by MSI. Read more at TradeWinds.
Analysis: a container shipping recession; what are the odds?
Containerised trade can be a complicated thing to forecast. Outside of niche and backhaul trades, the range of commodities transported in containers means that the production-consumption-net trade approach, that can be used to forecast iron ore or crude oil flows, is impractical, writes MSI Director Daniel Richards. Read more at The Loadstar.
APAC offshore wind: frontier of growth
Led by China, the Asia Pacific region represents the majority of installed global offshore wind capacity, with a bullish outlook for new capacity in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Vietnam.
MSI senior offshore energy market analyst, Todd Jensen, admitted there have been “some hiccups along the way” in the region but was bullish on its outlook. “The next five to 10 years, there’s a lot of opportunity, especially in APAC, to get offshore wind kicking off,” he said. Read more at Riviera.
The rise and fall of container spot rates — and what it means for 2026
Two years is a lifetime in shipping markets. It’s worth looking back to the pre-Red Sea crisis situation in the autumn of 2023, because today’s container shipping market appears ominously similar.
Next year’s newbuildings will enter a market that is already saturated with capacity. The fleet is much larger than it was before the Houthi attacks. Global containership capacity has increased by 5.1m teu or 19% since 3Q23, according to data from MSI. Read more at Lloydslist.
Supramax drydock wave tightens supply as retrofits crowd yards
Modelling by ABS and MSI suggests that under a “full conversion” scenario, demand for yard slots could exceed capacity as early as 2028 — producing a “gt-day” shortfall that balloons by 2030. Read more at Splash247.com
Guinea-China bauxite trade takes a big bite of 2025 Capesize tonnage
A combination of strong trade and high port waiting times will see the trade employ around 15% of Capesize vessels in 2025, according to MSI.
Massive year on year growth in Guinean bauxite trade has also absorbed Capesize substantial tonnage in 2025, contributing to recent freight market spikes. To read more see Dry Bulk Magazine
China Shakes Off US Tariff Threat
New analysis by MSI cites emerging evidence that the demand side of the industry will prove better-insulated from tariffs than was expected earlier in the year, while a dynamic where Chinese exporters continue to export their manufactured goods surplus – above all to emerging economies – has significantly buoyed trade so far this year. Read more at Marinelink